Bali’s governor is confident about 2026. Speaking to tour operators on 16 October, Wayan Koster said the island expects 7.1m to 7.2m foreign visits this year, a new record and well above the province’s own target of 6.625m. He said Bali had already received about 5.2m foreign visitors from January to September. The official data tells a more careful story. Arrivals were slightly down on last year to August, so the forecast depends on a strong finish. For hotel owners and revenue managers, that gap matters more than the headline.
Key facts
| Measure | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Governor’s 2026 forecast | 7.1m to 7.2m foreign visits | Statement, 16 October 2026 |
| Provincial 2026 target | 6.625m | Bali tourism office |
| Foreign arrivals, Jan to Aug 2026 | 4,586,959 | BPS Bali |
| Change on Jan to Aug 2025 | About -1.6% | Our calculation from BPS data |
| August 2026 | 685,994 (+0.46% year on year) | BPS Bali |
| July 2026 | 697,809 (+0.10% year on year) | BPS Bali |
| Foreign arrivals, 2025 | 6,948,754 (+9.72% on 2024) | BPS Bali |
| Star-rated hotel occupancy, July 2026 | 67.29% | BPS Bali |
What happened
The governor gave the forecast at the regional meeting of ASITA, Indonesia’s tour operators’ association, in Jimbaran. He used the figure to argue that Bali’s tourism is still growing.
BPS data shows a flat year. From January to July 2026, foreign arrivals were down 1.98% on the same period of 2025. Only February and July were up on a year earlier. August rose slightly, by 0.46%. Bali is holding last year’s very high level, but it is not growing.
What the numbers say
All calculations below are ours, based on BPS monthly data.
| Period | 2025 | 2026 needed for 7.1m | 2026 needed for 7.2m |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan to Aug | About 4.66m | 4.59m (actual) | 4.59m (actual) |
| Sep to Dec | About 2.29m | About 2.51m | About 2.61m |
| Growth needed, Sep to Dec | About +10% | About +14% |
Our read: a 10% to 14% jump in the last four months, after eight flat months, would be unusual. It is possible if September came in strong, as the governor’s 5.2m figure suggests, and if the year-end peak is stronger than last year’s. But the province’s own 6.625m target is far easier. Bali only needs about 2.04m arrivals from September to December to reach it, roughly 11% fewer than the same months of 2025. A full-year result between 6.9m and 7.0m, close to 2025, looks like the safer planning case.
The governor’s 2025 figure of 7.05m is also higher than the BPS total of 6.95m. Different counts may include arrivals by sea or other ports. Owners should plan on BPS data, which is published monthly and is consistent year to year.
Why it matters
Bali’s hotel supply keeps growing, with new luxury openings and villas across Ubud, Uluwatu and the north, as we set out in our Bali luxury pipeline analysis. Flat arrivals and more rooms mean rate pressure, especially for four-star hotels. In July, five-star occupancy was 74.45%, but four-star hotels were at 65.42%.
Some resorts are also taking rooms off the market. Amankila closed in October for three months to build branded residences, as we reported in our Amankila closure story. That helps others in the peak, but only at the very top of the market.
What it means for you
1. Revenue managers: price the peak on BPS data
Plan December and January on flat to modest growth, not on a 10%+ jump. Hold rate for the Christmas week rather than discounting early to chase volume.
2. Owners: watch the September and October figures
BPS releases each month’s data about a month later. If September and October show double-digit growth, the forecast is on track. If not, adjust 2027 budgets.
3. Four-star hotels: the gap is widening
Five-star hotels are filling better than four-star hotels. Mid-market owners should look at direct booking, groups and long stays to protect occupancy.
4. Investors: underwrite on 2025 levels
A record 2026 would help, but new projects should not depend on it. Use about 7m foreign arrivals a year as the base case.
FAQ
How many foreign tourists will visit Bali in 2026?
Bali’s governor expects 7.1m to 7.2m foreign visits. The provincial target is 6.625m. BPS data to August points to a total close to 2025’s level of about 6.95m.
How many foreign tourists visited Bali in 2025?
BPS Bali recorded 6,948,754 foreign arrivals in 2025, up 9.72% on 2024.
Are Bali tourist arrivals up or down in 2026?
Slightly down. From January to August 2026, BPS counted 4,586,959 foreign arrivals, about 1.6% fewer than a year earlier by our calculation.
What is hotel occupancy in Bali?
Star-rated hotels in Bali had 67.29% occupancy in July 2026, according to BPS. Five-star hotels reached 74.45%.
